Colloquio di routine in una filiale di un primario istituto di credito .
Secondo loro , un mese fa il cambio €/Chf ad 1.26 era “troppo caro” e “non giustificato dai fondamentali economici”, e che secondo i loro analisti “era atteso a breve un corposo rimbalzo dall’ipervenduto” che avrebbe riportato le quotazione della divisa unica europea verso nord.
Per queste ragioni sconsigliavano a tutti i loro clienti di acquistare Chf contro € .
Nel sentire queste parole mi sono venute in mente queste parole :
Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price, and I call them “Funny-Mentals”. However, if you catch on early before others believe, then you might have valuable (surprise-a-mentals).
There’s a constellation of cognitive and emotional factors that makes people automatically countertrend in their approach.
People want to buy cheap and sell dear ; this by itself makes them countertrend.
But the notion of cheapness or deamess must be anchored to something.
People tend to view the prices they’re used to as normal and prices removed from these levels as aberrant.
This perspective leads people to trade counter to an emerging trend on the assumption that prices will eventually return to “normal”. Therein lies the path to disaster”.
