Ed ho iniziato a comprenderlo quando ho letto le anticipazioni alle 14.15 della mistress Goldman, ed a quel punto tutti i movimenti intermarket dei vari asset hanno iniziato ad avere un qualche senso :
Employment report for Dec…will payrolls rise or fall ?
GS: -25k, median forecast (of 76): flat, ranging from -100k to +85k; last -11k.
Economists are evenly divided on this question as last month’s near stabilization and ongoing improvement in claims for unemployment insurance has prompted half of the forecasters to predict an increase for December.
In our case, we think the drop in continuing claims, which has historically been helpful in forecasting payroll changes, should be heavily discounted as the sharp rise in workers receiving extended benefits indicates that much of this decline is simply the expiration of eligibility for the regular 26-week program
Ed infatti :
Us market mover: non-farm payrolls -85k
Il dato è riferito al mese di dicembre 2009.
Le stime di consensus si attendevano un decremento di 3k.
